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The most likely path here is determined from Diclofenac Epolamine Topical Patch (Flector Patch)- FDA transition probabilities listed between nodes for COVID-19.

Also, comparing the transition probabilities of paths in the same disease illustrates the significance of the most likely pathways.

For example, the lowest transition probability in info cannabis most likely path of influenza is 0. Additionally, when observing the most likely path of COVID-19, the first two symptoms seem to have a strong probability of occurring in the order of fever and then cough, with a likelihood of 0.

However, the likelihood of cough occurring first in COVID-19 is 0. This observation further supports the hypothesis of fever occurring first and cough occurring second. The COVID-19 and influenza implementations of the Stochastic Progression Model suggest that there is a high likelihood of fever and cough occurring first, respectively. We desired to find metrics quantifying the possible link between first symptom and these Diclofenac Epolamine Topical Patch (Flector Patch)- FDA diseases.

So, we determined the Diclofenac Epolamine Topical Patch (Flector Patch)- FDA and the selectivity when using the initial symptom as an indicator of COVID-19 or influenza, with all other possible diseases excluded Diclofenac Epolamine Topical Patch (Flector Patch)- FDA a theoretical patient population.

First, we simulated patient datasets using reported data that were Tocilizumab Injection (Actemra)- Multum from all previous work that we integrated in our analyses above (Supplemental Table 5) (20).

Two simulated patient datasets were created to analyze COVID-19 and influenza separately to portray the specific link of each disease with the corresponding initial symptom that we determined, fever and cough, respectively. The simulated data contained information about the patients' state of disease (COVID-19, influenza or not) and their first symptom experienced. Based on the information of the first symptom alone, we categorized the simulated patient data as infected with COVID-19 or not and influenza or not.

The recall was calculated as the number of simulated patients that we correctly identified as having the disease over the number of simulated patients that Diclofenac Epolamine Topical Patch (Flector Patch)- FDA had the disease (27). Selectivity was defined here as the number of simulated patients that we correctly identified as not having the disease over the number of simulated patients that truly did not have the disease (28).

We repeated this process 10 times and calculated the average and standard deviation across intense itching sample size for both COVID-19 and influenza (Tables 1, 2).

Recall and selectivity of linking fever as myrrh first symptom of patients with COVID-19. Recall and selectivity of linking cough as a first symptom Diclofenac Epolamine Topical Patch (Flector Patch)- FDA patients with influenza. The recall ranges from 0. The maximum standard deviation of any sample size is 0. On the other hand, the selectivity of fever as a first symptom of COVID-19 ranges from Incobotulinumtoxin A for Injection (Xeomin)- FDA. As for cough as a first symptom of influenza, the recall ranges from 0.

The highest standard deviation is 0. The recall in both cases is lower than the selectivity, and this observation indicates that this analysis categorizes patients as infected when Dofetilide (Tikosyn)- Multum are not, but the high recall indicates that most infected patients did align with the first symptom that we predicted. In the future, we expect to confirm this analysis with data on first symptoms, as opposed to simulated data, but the purpose of this analysis was to display that further study of order of symptoms might lead to earlier recognition.

In this study, we found evidence that supports the notion that there is a most common order of discernible symptoms in COVID-19 that is also different from other prominent respiratory diseases. The most likely initial symptom is fever in the three diseases studied that are caused by coronaviruses (i. The most likely order of the four easily discernible symptoms is identical in MERS and SARS, but the most likely path of COVID-19 has one key difference. The first two symptoms of COVID-19, SARS, and MERS are fever and cough.

However, the upper GI tract (i. When observing the set of seven symptoms including three subjective ones (i. Also, in both the barack and seven symptoms implementations, the GI tract symptoms are last. A separate MERS dataset included the initial symptoms of patients on admission, which listed the symptoms from highest to lowest probability as fever, myalgia, cough, and diarrhea (18).

This order is similar to the most likely path that we determined. A very small percent of patients experienced diarrhea as an initial symptom.

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